On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 1.3% from September to October, the first monthly gains in eight months. Despite this growth in sales, this should not be seen as the beginning of an upward trend but more like a stabilization of the market, with sales now 35.6% below their February level. With the rate hike expected by the Bank of Canada in December, the resale market could even experience some further declines in the coming months and remains at a level of activity well below its historical average. It should also be noted that the real estate market has stabilized or rebounded in the majority of Canadian provinces, with decreases recorded only in Quebec and Newfoundland.
On the supply side, this is the first time in four months that new listings are up with an increase of 2.2% from September to October. Despite the increase in sales, the increase in new listings allowed supply to accumulate resulting in the number of months of inventory increasing from 3.7 to 3.8 in October. However, we are not yet seeing a large influx of sellers at this time so supply is still very low on a historical basis and market conditions are still pointing in the direction of a “favourable to sellers” market. This situation is also present in the majority of Canadian provinces, while only B.C. and Manitoba are close to indicating a “favourable to buyers” market.
Source: National Bank of Canada